USD/CAD Forecast Feb. 1-5 – Canada dollar drifting


Canada Constructing Permits confirmed a decline of 4.1% in December, the second decline in three months. Canada GDP in November was unexpectedly robust with a achieve of 0.7%, up from 0.4%. This studying simply beat the forecast of 0.4%. The Uncooked Supplies Worth Index jumped 3.5% in December, its highest stage in six months.

Within the US, CB Shopper Confidence rose to 89.3, up from 87.1 beforehand. Sturdy Items Orders continued to slide, falling to 0.2% in December. This was nicely wanting the forecast of 1.0%. The Federal Reserve coverage assembly reiterated a dovish stance and Fed Chair Powell poured chilly water on hypothesis that the Fed would taper its QE program within the close to future. Advance GDP for Q1 posted a good achieve of 4.0%, near the estimate of 4.2%.

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USD/CAD day by day graph with resistance and assist strains on it. Click on to enlarge:

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:30. Manufacturing continues to hum, with the PMI posting releases nicely into expansionary territory. The November studying improved to 57.9, its highest stage in additional than 9 years. Will the upswing proceed in December?
  2. Employment Report: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economic system shed 62.6 thousand in November, its first decline since April. The unemployment charge nudged greater to eight.6% up from 8.5%. We now await the December numbers.
  3. Ivey PMI: Friday, 15:00. The PMI was weaker than anticipated and fell into contraction territory in December, with a studying of 46.7, down from 52.7. This was nicely wanting the estimate of 53.1.

Technical strains from high to backside:

We begin with resistance at 1.3034.

1.2916 switched to resistance at the beginning of December, when USD/CAD began its slide.

1.2825 is subsequent.

1.2707 is the primary assist stage.

1.2616 is subsequent.

1.2498 has held in assist since February 2018.

1.2422 (talked about last week) is the ultimate assist stage for now.

I’m impartial on USD/CAD

The US greenback has bounced again after a weak This fall in 2020, and has held its personal in early 2021. This week’s key occasions, together with Canada Employment Change, might have a big influence on the path of the pair this week.

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