Anecdotes like Mr. Geismann’s, nevertheless, aren’t simple to interpret. Maybe Schuchart and corporations like it might have discovered one other solution to make ends meet, or would have rehired employees shortly as soon as development initiatives resumed.
Economists have tried to reply that query utilizing information. Mr. Autor in contrast corporations with slightly below 500 workers — which might qualify for this system’s authentic model — with these simply above that measurement, which couldn’t. If the loans have been an enormous assist, then the smaller corporations ought to have retained many extra of their employees. As a substitute, Mr. Autor discovered little distinction between the 2 teams.
However some economists argue that such analysis understates this system’s impression as a result of it fails to deal with the smallest companies, which have been much less more likely to have massive money reserves or different financing.
One paper, primarily based on a survey of companies in Oakland, Calif., discovered that these receiving P.P.P. loans have been 20.5 % extra more likely to say they anticipated to outlive six months — however that the comparatively higher optimism was restricted to companies with fewer than 5 workers.
Robert Bartlett, one of many Oakland research’s authors, stated economists like Mr. Autor could be proper that P.P.P. saved fewer jobs than hoped. “However for these small companies, I feel it helped them hold their doorways open,” he stated. “I’m satisfied of that.” Lots of these companies, he famous, are in poor neighborhoods or are owned by racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. based AltusLearn, which offers coaching and compliance programs to medical employees, in 2013. By final 12 months the corporate, primarily based in Madison, Wis., had six workers and was on observe for a 12 months of great development.
As a substitute, when the pandemic started, medical facilities halted nearly all nonurgent care and canceled coaching.